In Brief:
- The ACLED Conflict Index indicates a 25% increase in political violence incidents from December 2023 to November 2024.
- Nearly 200,000 political violence events were documented worldwide, resulting in over 233,000 fatalities.
- Palestine is identified as the most dangerous region, with 81% of its population exposed to conflict and approximately 35,000 deaths reported.
- The index categorizes countries into extreme, high, or turbulent conflict levels based on four indicators: deadliness, danger to civilians, geographic diffusion, and armed group fragmentation.
- The report emphasizes that one in six people globally live in areas affected by conflict.
Situation Report
The latest ACLED Conflict Index reveals a troubling escalation in global political violence, with nearly 200,000 incidents recorded from December 2023 to November 2024. This represents a significant 25% increase compared to the previous year and reflects a broader trend of rising conflict intensity over the past five years. The index highlights that approximately 233,000 fatalities are estimated due to these conflicts during this period.
Palestine has emerged as the most dangerous region globally, with 81% of its population exposed to conflict. The report indicates that around 35,000 fatalities have been recorded over the past year alone—more than 50,000 since Hamas's attack on October 7, 2023. On average, 52 conflict incidents occur daily within Palestinian territories, underscoring the severity of the situation.
The ACLED Conflict Index utilizes four key indicators—deadliness, danger to civilians, geographic diffusion of conflict, and armed group fragmentation—to assess and rank countries based on their levels of conflict. As of January 2024, 50 countries ranked within extreme or high conflict categories, indicating widespread violence across numerous regions.
Countries such as Myanmar and Ukraine also feature prominently in the index due to ongoing severe conflicts. The report emphasizes that one in six people globally, or approximately 1.5 billion individuals, live within five kilometres of a political violence event.
The index further notes that electoral processes have become increasingly linked to spikes in violence; countries experiencing elections in 2024 saw an average increase of 63% in national political violence compared to those without elections.
The report also discusses how the use of IED's and bombings have surged dramatically across conflict zones. In 2024 alone, bombings accounted for more than 90,000 events, nearly double the rate of battles and triple that of direct violence against civilians.
As we move into 2025, expectations are for continued high levels of violence with an anticipated annual increase of around 20%. The interplay between governmental control and local power dynamics will be crucial in shaping future conflict patterns.
Conflicts in Ukraine, Sudan, the Middle East and Myanmar will likely remain focal points for humanitarian concerns as civilian populations bear the brunt of escalating hostilities.
Discussion