In Brief

U.S. intelligence reports indicate that Hamas has recruited between 10,000 and 15,000 new operatives since October 7, 2023.
Israeli Government estimates suggest that Hamas has lost around 20,000 fighters during the conflict.
US intel highlights that most new Hamas recruits are young, and lack military training, serving primarily in basic security roles.
The recent ceasefire has allowed Hamas to begin rebuilding basic services in Gaza.

Situation Report

Since the outbreak of hostilities on October 7, 2023, Hamas has reportedly recruited between 10,000 and 15,000 new fighters, according to U.S. intelligence sources briefed by congressional officials.

This recruitment surge follows significant losses for the organization, which Israeli intelligence estimates at approximately 20,000 fighters killed during the conflict.

While these numbers indicate a robust recruitment effort, many of the new operatives are young individuals who lack sufficient military training and experience. They primarily serve in basic security roles rather than as fully operational combatants.

One congressional source emphasized to Reuters that although the recruitment figures are high, the newly formed ranks do not possess significant operational capabilities.

After 15 months of intense fighting, the two sides managed to agree on a ceasefire. Since then Hamas has begun efforts to rebuild essential services in Gaza while implementing new security measures to maintain control over the territory.

Former U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken noted that despite Israel's military operations aimed at dismantling Hamas's infrastructure, the organization has been able to regroup effectively due to a lack of sustained pressure on its leadership.

Israeli officials have expressed scepticism about the immediate threat posed by these recruits.

  • Israeli Ambassador to the United Nations Danny Danon pointed out that while young recruits could be incited against Israel, their lack of access to weapons and training infrastructure limits their potential as effective militants.
  • Outgoing IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi acknowledged that despite significant blows dealt to Hamas during the conflict, the organization remains intact and capable of regrouping. He reiterated Israel's commitment to dismantling Hamas’s operational capabilities.

Reuters reports notes that Intelligence Agencies are not yet fully able to accurately assess Hamas’s strength, due to restricted access to Gaza and the fluid nature of its recruitment strategies.

Prior to the conflict, estimates indicated that Hamas had a fighting force of approximately 20,000 to 25,000 members.

Assessment