How Space Technologies Boost Beijing's Intelligence Capabilities

In Brief

Introduction

Over the last decade, the People’s Republic of China has emerged as a strategic competitor to the United States, the European Union (EU), and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), presenting a systemic challenge to the existing international order.

This rebalancing of power is also acutely felt in the space domain, where China has invested heavily in developing a national space programme that aims to surpass Russia’s and rival that of the US.

The dual-use nature of most space capabilities and China’s promotion of a ‘military-civil fusion’ (MCF) model – which promotes technology transfer between the military and civilian spheres3 – have raised concerns about the potential for China’s expanding space capabilities to contribute to hybrid threats, As outlined by Hybrid CoE, hybrid threats are characterized by

• Coordinated and synchronized actions that deliberately target the systemic vulnerabilities of democratic states and institutions through a wide range of means.
• Activities that exploit the thresholds of detection and attribution, as well as the different interfaces (e.g., war-peace, internal-external security, local-state, and national-international).
• Activities aimed at influencing different forms of decision-making at the local (regional), state, or institutional level, and designed to further and/or fulfil the agent’s strategic goals while undermining and/or hurting the target.

This encompasses a broad spectrum of activities across different domains, including space, which is closely interconnected with other domains, and relied upon by Western nations for communications, navigation, and connectivity. A recurring theme across these diverse activities is the need for effective intelligence to enable situational awareness and guide decision-making, both by the aggressor and those states targeted in a hybrid threat scenario.

In turn, space capabilities have emerged as a key enabler of modern intelligence-gathering, reflecting the unique opportunities associated with the use of space as the ‘ultimate high ground’.

This Hybrid CoE Paper focuses on the role of space-based intelligence capabilities through China’s rapid development of satellite technologies. This includes a mix of Chinese civilian and military agencies, as well as various forms of overt, covert or deniable cooperation between Chinese state entities and a growing array of commercial, private or proxy actors, all contributing to hybrid threats.

To explore the contribution of Chinese space-based intelligence capabilities to the hybrid threat landscape, a scan of a range of academic and government publications relating to developments in the Chinese space sector was conducted.

The goal is to provide readers with a foundational understanding of the type of hybrid threats posed by the rapid advances in Chinese intelligence-gathering capabilities operating in and through the space domain.

China and space: How space technologies boost China’s intelligence capabilities as part of hybrid threats

Over the last decade, the People’s Republic of China has emerged as a strategic competitor to the EU and NATO, presenting a systemic challenge to the existing international order. This rebalancing of power is acutely felt in the space domain, where China has invested heavily. This Hybrid CoE Paper looks at China’s rapidly expanding space-based capabilities and their potential for misuse in hybrid threat operations. It examines the role of space in Chinese strategy, while also providing readers with a basic understanding of Chinese intelligence-gathering capabilities. It concludes by considering the implications of these developments for the EU and NATO.

Hybrid CoE - The European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats20241021-Hybrid-CoE-Paper-21-China-and-space-WEB.pdf