Minsk Under Moscow’s Shadow

On January 26, 2025, Lukashenko claimed an 86.82% victory in a rigged presidential election, further entrenching his authoritarian rule.

Belarus has become increasingly dependent on Moscow for economic and military support, with integration under the Union State advancing.

Belarus continues to use the instrumentalisation of migration as a hybrid warfare tool against the EU, with tens of thousands attempting illegal crossings into neighboring states.

Russia has stationed nuclear weapons in Belarus and uses the country as a logistical hub for its war in Ukraine, complicating European security.

Individual sanctions against persons and entities include asset freezes and travel bans. Graph: EUISS

Recent Developments

Belarus remains under the iron grip of Alexander Lukashenko, who secured a seventh presidential term in January 2025 through a fraudulent election widely condemned by the international community.

Despite releasing some political prisoners in 2024 to project a façade of reform, over 1,250 remain unjustly detained, and political repression continues unabated.

Opposition figures like Svetlana Tsikhanouskaya have been forced into exile, while civil society organizations and independent media have been dismantled.

*A satellite image shows probable missile and rocket launcher deployments north-west of Yelsk in Belarus back in 2022.*

Russia’s Expanding Foothold

Moscow's influence over Belarus has intensified since Lukashenko relied on Kremlin support to suppress protests following the contested 2020 election.

Russia has used this leverage to deepen integration under the Union State framework, signing agreements that provide Moscow with formal intervention rights during crises in Belarus.

Economically, Belarus is heavily reliant on Russia, with 70% of its exports directed there—a sharp increase from previous years.

Militarily, Belarus serves as a critical logistics base for Russia's war in Ukraine, hosting nuclear weapons and enabling missile strikes from its territory. While the number of Russian troops stationed in Belarus remains limited (around 2,000), their presence underscores Minsk's role as a launchpad for potential aggression.

This complicates Ukraine's defensive efforts and raises broader security concerns for NATO and the EU.

Belarusian Hybrid Threats

In recent years, Belarus has increasingly employed hybrid tactics to destabilize the European Union and exert political pressure on its member states. These tactics include the instrumentalisation of migration, cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and military provocations, often in coordination with Russia.

Since 2021, Belarusian authorities have facilitated the arrival of migrants from the Middle East and Africa, directing them toward Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. This deliberate use of migration as a tool of political coercion has placed significant strain on border security and humanitarian resources.

In 2024 alone, over 36,000 migrants attempted illegal crossings into Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia—creating significant strain on these countries' border security systems.

Meanwhile, Minsk has been linked to cyber operations and disinformation efforts aimed at spreading false narratives, particularly about the war in Ukraine and European policies.

Approaching China

While Lukashenko remains aligned with Moscow out of necessity, he has sought to diversify Belarus's international partnerships to offset isolation from the West.

Relations with China have grown significantly; trade surged by 77% in 2023, and military cooperation has expanded through joint exercises and weapons development projects like the Polonez rocket system.

However, these efforts have not meaningfully reduced Belarus's dependence on Russia.